A carve-out's first 100 days

Weeks one to three

What the business really earns

By 21 July, the end of week three, on the history the business came with: the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, every customer’s margin after every discount, rebate and piece of trade spend, and after the logistics and marketing it takes, from the business’s own sales data and ledger.

From net sales to contribution, customer by customer

Where the margin is thinnest

No customer’s gross margin falls below the floor of 10%, so none is flagged as costing more than it brings in. At the other end, Distributor Nordics keeps 34.3% after its cost to serve.

Brand by brand: what logistics and marketing take

Weeks four to eight

The 2027 budget, from the S&OP plan

Next year’s budget, built month by month: revenue, cost of goods and stock from the S&OP plan, operating costs from each cost-centre owner, set beside where 2026 is expected to land.

Budget P&L, against the latest estimate

From the budget’s gross margin to EBIT

Balance sheet

Cash flow

The budget opens on the latest estimate’s year-end, which runs on from the books of 30 September. The bank facility is not drawn in any month. Overheads carry 662 thousand euros of the carve-out to March: transition services from the former parent, 342, and one-off separation costs, 320, each on an account of its own.

Five sign-offs, then the lock

Locked. The S&OP plan the budget starts from was signed first, then the five sign-offs. The lock checked that the balance sheet balances and the cash reconciles in all 12 months.

Every Monday since week one

Thirteen weeks of cash

Monday 28 September 2026: thirteen weeks by company and bank account, from the open invoices, the bank balances and the rolling forecast of October. One has been built every Monday since week one and locked a week later; the first went to the lenders.

Thirteen weeks, for the group

The downside, and what the actions win back

What each change does to cash in week 13 (EUR thousand): sales 10% lower, −1,465; customers paying 10 days later, −3,172; materials suppliers paid 7 days later, +580; 3,000 drawn on the bank facility in week 3 and repaid in week 9, −18, its interest at 5.2% a year.

Last week against the forecast, 21 to 27 September

Last week was 96.8% accurate. One week ahead, the forecast has been 89.2% accurate over the 12 weeks since completion. The lenders’ first forecast, of 6 July, tested over 12 weeks: receipts came in 0.9% below it and payments went out 3.6% above it, both inside the tolerance of 15%.

October, against the monthly plan

Each difference is named. The opening one is timing: the weekly view forecast 28 to 30 September, which the books already hold. The plan carries October’s 354 thousand of transition services and separation in its overheads, so their own row is empty on its side.

Customers and companies

How each customer pays. Three distributors pay later than their terms, learnt from their own payments: Distributor Czech Republic and Slovakia 10 days after 21-day terms, Distributor France 10 days after 21, and Distributor Poland 7 days after 24. Every other customer pays within 3 days of its due date, and each one’s open invoices are dated by its own habit.

Between the companies. The selling company pays the plant 6,624 thousand euros over the thirteen weeks; it shows in each company and nets to nil in the group. The undrawn facility of 10,000 thousand counts in the headroom, and bank cash agrees with the books at 31 August, company by company. The carve-out. The former parent’s transition services, 342 thousand, and one-off separation costs, 445, are paid on a line of their own.

Weeks nine to twelve

The five-year plan

The plan for 2027 to 2031 in three scenarios, saved and signed by the board: 2027 is the locked budget in each, and the years after grow from it. The P&L, the cash and debt, the value of each scenario, and next year’s budget against its targets.

Three scenarios over five years

Cash and net debt at each year-end, from each scenario’s balance sheet, which balances in every year. Net debt is the bank loans less cash: the loans fall from 15,333 to 10,000 thousand by 2031 in each scenario, and below nought the business holds more cash than it owes. From 2028 each pays out 80% of the year before’s profit as dividends.

Free cash flow, and the value of each scenario

Each scenario is valued at the end of 2027, where it parts from the locked budget, discounting at 9.56% a year, with growth of 2.0% a year after 2031; the years after 2031 are 76.7% of the base value. At 8.81% or 10.31% the base equity value would be 190,559 or 155,788 thousand; with growth of 1.5% or 2.5%, 162,436 or 181,735.

The 2027 budget against its targets

The targets came from the strategic plan of the summer, its first year. The five-year plan the board signed starts from the locked budget itself, so its first year is the budget, line by line, which is above the targets on every line.